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The future of electric vehicle development in Vietnam

Trường Lăng

June 9, 2022

News

The future of electric vehicle development in Vietnam

Trường Lăng

June 9, 2022

Vietnam has the potential to develop electric vehicles, but there are still concerns about the infrastructure, standards for electric vehicles, the safety of electricity and batteries during use. 3 scenarios of electrification in traffic

Online seminar: “The future of electric vehicle development in Vietnam” has just taken place, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Khanh, energy expert, representative of the research group “Electric vehicle development: Trend forecast and implications for Vietnam”, in the period 2010-2019, the number of passengers in circulation increased by 9%/year. In the period 2014-2020, each year, on average, 5.14 million motorbikes, 255,000 cars and 250,000 electric motorbikes are newly registered, 

Of which, traffic energy consumption accounted for 21.4% of total national consumption in 2014, an increase of 4.9% in the period 2014-2019, faster than the growth rate of the whole industry at 3.4%. Total emissions were 33.2 million tons, accounting for 19.3% of emissions from the energy sector.

“However, in the traffic development planning and strategy, it only regulates the infrastructure, without viewingthe means of transport,” said Dr. Nguyen Quoc Khanh. For the electrification scenario in traffic, Mr. Khanh said that there are 3 main scenarios: the base scenario, the medium development scenario and the high scenario.

Under the base scenario, the penetration of electric vehicles will be low, mainly electric motorbikes, the proportion of electric motorbikes will account for 18% of new motorbikes sold in 2030 and 40% in 2050.

2018 sales and market forecast for the next years

In the medium development scenario, the proportion of electric motorbikes will account for 34% of new motorbikes sold in 2030 and 65% in 2050. Electric cars will account for 30% of new cars sold in 2030.

In the high scenario, electric vehicles will account for 72% of new vehicles sold by 2030, 100% by 2050; cars will account for 30% by 2030, 70% by 2050; buses account for 10% by 2030, 30% by 2050; pickup trucks, light and medium-duty trucks account for 5% by 2030 and 30% by 2050.

 The demand for electricity in the near future is really huge

Also according to the analysis of Dr. Nguyen Quoc Khanh, with scenario 2, the electricity demand in 2030 in the transport sector is about 3.99 billion kWh, equivalent to the electricity output of half of Hoa Binh Hydropower Plant; by 2050, it is 17.57 billion kWh, equivalent to 2 Hoa Binh hydropower plants

With scenario 3, the electricity demand for the transport industry is about 8.48 billion kWh by 2030, equivalent to Hoa Binh Hydropower Plant; this number increases to 71.87 billion kWh by 2050, equivalent to 10 Hoa Binh Hydropower plants. Regarding the results of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the research team’s calculations, with scenario 2, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 1.8% by 2030 and 4.7% by 2050 if the power source structure as in the Electricity Master Plan VIII remains the same. Scenario 3 will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3.3% by 2030 and 13.6% by 2050 if the power source structure as in Electricity Master Plan VIII remains the same.

Speaking of infrastructure for electric vehicles, according to Dr. Nguyen Duc Tuyen (University of Science and Technology), currently, apart from 200 charging stations of Vinfast, Vietnam has almost no infrastructure for electric vehicle development; Vietnam’s standards for the development of this type of vehicle are neither available nor consistent.

To have a basis to promote the development of electric vehicles in Vietnam, Mr. Tuyen said, it is necessary to complete technical standards, such as technical requirements and electrical safety with a fast charging, battery and accumulator replacing system…At the same time, optimizing charging stations and battery charging locations by using clean power sources, renewable energy, and managing grid capacity balance.

“Besides, there should be policies to directly support the vehicle purchase price, tax, charging costs, and installation of home charging stations, high tax on emissions. Even, it is necessary to have a dedicated area for electric vehicles, like for current BRT vehicles”, Mr. Tuyen said.

Source : Nhipcaudautu

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